The North Miami Beach Police Department’s tweets commenced.
Not on Monday, as Pattypan predicted:
But, commenced they did:
Interestingly, the NMBPD Tweeter prefaced the news about the shooting death of a young man with a blurb about declining crime rates since 2007. Just to make sure you know that things are just getting better and better in North Miami Beach all the time.
Usually, when someone asks whether you want the good news or the bad news first, well, you know. Whatever.
In any event, since the Tweeter suggested we check out the statistical crime rates as noted by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE), that’s exactly what I did. Since the tweet claims our crime rate has continued to decline since 2007, I opened up the Excel file for “Florida Index Crime by Jurisdiction 1991-2012,” which lists every single jurisdiction in the State of Florida. I then edited the Index for the years 2007 through 2012 (the last complete year indexed), first for all of Miami Dade County. (Click that link in case you’re interested.) Then I broke it down to only North Miami and North Miami Beach, because, let’s face it, those are the only two I give a damn about. (Go ahead. Click that link.)
I did not edit the years before 2007 because I was only interested in analyzing the NMBPD Tweeter’s claim. After a thorough analysis and two cups of coffee, I made the following observations regarding North Miami Beach:
1. The murder rate per year from 2007 through 2012 was: 0, 2, 1, 2, 1 and 2.
2. The rape rate per year from 2007 through 2012 was: 28, 20, 27, 29, 13, 27.
3. The robbery rate per year from 2007 through 2012 was: 225, 192, 169, 136, 132, 130.
4. Aggravated Assault: 212, 173, 204, 179, 171, 120.
5. Burglary: 677, 637, 697, 743, 663, 702.
6. Larceny: 1478, 1550, 1358, 1189, 1145, 1163.
7. Motor Vehicle Theft: 137, 209, 187, 177, 186, 123.
8. Crime Rate/100,000: 6733.9, 6809.9, 6584.1, 6138.9, 5544.6, 5383.1.
Statistically speaking, the overall crime rate per 100,000 residents has indeed gone down. Not counting murder or burglary. Those two crimes increased by 2 and 25, respectively, over the last six years. And while Robbery, Aggravated Assault and Larceny rates dropped dramatically (relatively speaking), 14 fewer cars were stolen from 2007 to 2012. The NMBPD Tweeter’s claim that crime rate has declined since 2007 was technically accurate.
But here’s where it gets a tad tricky.
The NMBPD Tweeter failed to mention that the Percentage of Cleared Crimes also declined. By “cleared,” I will assume the FDLE means “solved,” but if that’s not what it means, someone please fill me in.
According to the FDLE chart:
1. % Cleared from 2007 through 2012: 17.5%, 19.7%, 16.3%, 13.5%, 15.0%, 10.7%.
You will notice that the Percentage of Cleared Crimes dropped dramatically from 2011 to 2012, which I am sure (and this is strictly a guess on my part) has absolutely NOTHING to do with the fact that we lost quite a few really good detectives last year. Nothing whatsoever.
Just saying.
I’m not sure what your opinion is, but I’m a little nervous about the fact that only 10.7% of crimes in North Miami Beach were “cleared” in 2012.
Then again, maybe it’s just me.
Moving right along…
The FDLE also provided a chart for the first half of 2013 (January through June), which I also edited for 2013 Semi-Annual Crime Rates MD County and also for North Miami and North Miami Beach. Let’s analyze this:
1. Murder: 0
2. Rape: 10 (Note: It’s now called “Forcible Rape” as opposed to just plain old “Rape.”)
3. Robbery: 68
4. Aggravated Assault: 62
5. Burglary: 302
6. Larceny: 498
7. Motor Vehicle Theft: 63
If you extrapolate those figures by doubling them to roughly estimate the rates for the entire of 2013, we are about on schedule for the average amount of crimes in North Miami Beach. But if you take into consideration that January through June does not include South Florida’s “mean season,” when the heat makes people a little crazy, or the 2013 holiday season, when crimes tend to increase, I’d guess the final tally for last year will be significantly higher than that estimate.
The good news, however, is that as of June 30, 2013, the Percentage of Cleared Crimes was 11.6%. Yay! An upward trend from 2012! Let’s see if that continues.
In any event, the good news is that the North Miami Beach Police Department’s Official Tweeter finally woke up and chirped.
The Public Information Office finally issued a press release.
The media picked it up and the story went viral.
But, the shooter is still at large.
However, the NMB Crime rate “continues to decline since 2007.”
Doesn’t that make you feel all warm and fuzzy?
Yeah. I can hardly contain myself.
Stephanie Kienzle
“Spreading the Wealth”
Steph,
You have not correctly analyzed your data. You need to take a statistics course, so you will understand about statistical significance, including things like sample size. Your overall indicators seem to be bouncing around, although you do have what looks like a firm trend from ’07 to ’12. 2012 was a good year for you in most crime sectors.
However, your point, as you reminded me yesterday, was about the PIO. You seem to be willing to attach significance to the lower than usual clearance rate, at least in 2012, and you’re even willing to blame it on the loss of some detectives. So if you’re willing to draw important conclusions from that one indicator, why do you resist celebrating your underlying and centrally relevant fact?: “In any event, the good news is that the North Miami Beach Police Department’s Official Tweeter woke up and finally chirped. The Public Information Office finally issued a press release.” Furthermore, why wouldn’t you take the liberty to credit yourself and the blog? I credit you. You have complained, and you have effected change. You should pat yourself on the back, and thank the PIO. Perhaps the “NMB Cop” will correct me again, but from where I sit, it looks like you won a victory. Be happy.
Fred
Because there is no “I” in victory. Oh, wait. There is.
But, “I” don’t do this alone. I have tipsters, sources and a Team of concerned residents who help me in my efforts to clean up our cities. I am merely a spokes-mouth. With a website. And a fairly good command of the English language. Even if I suck at statistics, who cares?
My point is that there was no real victory here. There is a young man who died in the prime of his life for absolutely no reason. There is a killer out there somewhere who needs to answer for this crime. The PIO could have, and should have issued a presser earlier, and it just might have helped catch the son of a bitch. The case is getting colder and colder, and the young man’s family has been forever destroyed.
Victory? Hardly!
Not yet anyway. The NMBPD PIO might suck at PR, but I still have faith in our police department and its officers, who I know will do everything in their power to find and arrest the killer. They are the ones who will deserve credit, not me.
Also interesting to note is that North Miami’s crime rate has dropped dramatically from 2007 to 2012, in every single “crime sector.” That city’s crime rate went from 8089.6 to 5793.1 per 100,000 residents. Now THAT is something to brag about. Just saying.
“Presser” is newsroom speak for a press conference. The term for press release is….press release.
Thanks! I should have know that. DUH! Filed for future reference.
See Fred? I told you this is a Team effort!
You know what, Bill. I just thought of something. The PIO could have issued a presser as well as a press release. In fact, that’s exactly what the North Miami PIO does. I officially take back my “DUH!”
What is a “cleared crime”? Does it mean the investigation is over, the subject arrested, and the case closed? That can take forever because of evidence gathering, court delays, appeals, etc., so I don’t know if that is an indicator of anything. I’m also not sure if I want the NMBPD blasting stuff out on Twitter and other social media sites unless there is imminent danger to the community. It strikes me as a little reckless to go shouting out the latest neighborhood shooting in the name of “public information”. I’m afraid there are too many idiots around here who will take it as an invitation to grab their AK47 and come join in the fun. People are crazy.
I learned today that a “cleared” crime is a closed case.
As for twitter, the MDPD uses it for exactly those reasons. They alert the public. For example: https://twitter.com/miamidadepd/status/405197402925465600
A good PIO would know exactly what information to give to the media and what to hold back, depending on whether it would help or harm the investigation. It’s not just about issuing press releases. It’s about having the right person for the job.
The PIO would not decide what information to give or hold back. That would be a command decision, based on, you are correct, whether it would help or harm the investigation. The clearance rate may indeed be affected by the loss of detectives…or the morale and corresponding work ethic of those remaining. You may recall a certain holiday “poem” posted on LEO Affairs.
If we had the right person in the position of PIO, one who is a trained professional, that individual would be given the authority to disseminate information based on knowledge and experience. This position should not be one that is swayed by the backroom politics at city hall, but guided by what is best for the community.
Then again, my crack squad of Irony Specialists have wryly noted that this should be the same criteria by which elected officials should govern. And yet…
Never mind. I’ve said too much already.
BTW, that “poem” was hilarious.
Wouldn’t it be nice if “trained professionals” were trusted to do their jobs. I surmise that it is the rare city that allows the public information officer to make any decisions about what is “public information”. In fact, people get fired all the time for taking the initiative, even when it is the right thing to do. We live in a “instant” message world where people in public positions have learned to be uber careful about “shooting from the hip” lest they suffer grave and lasting consequences.
If UPS lost 25% of its drivers, what do you think would happen to their on-time delivery rate?
a trend toward decreasing clearance may also correspond with a decrease in crime reporting, as well.
If they’re having trouble clearing cases there may be pressure to avoid documenting crimes to begin with.
Note I say MAY, so no one chew me out for jumping the gun.